June 30, 2018
Facebook Live: One year of GST-Amit Mitra
0Let me first start by saying what is it that we want to measure, to look at the performance of the Narendra Modi Government or the NDA Government. First lets go to the Macro Economic scene, what did they do to the country, good, bad, ugly. What is interesting is, the growth of GDP was 7.7% in 2013-14. What happens in 2017/18 declines by over 1% you know what that means. Ladies and gentlemen it means that we have extinguished forever one lakh fifty thousand crore of GDP, 1%.Now you add it up of the other years you’ll find that a colossal loss to the GDP of the Country. No one talks about it in the manner in which Trinamool Congress talks about it.
Let me turn to Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing. Very fundamental to our people of the country. What happens there 15% rate of growth in 2013-14. Pretty good. Plummets to 4.55% rate of growth, 15 to 4.5, no wonder, farmers suicide, agriculture distress all over the country reflected in the Macro Economic data,given by Government of India,not my data.
Now you turn to electricity, gas, water supply fundamental to the needs of the common people of India, what happens there, same story, 20.8% rate of growth in 2013-14, plummets to 6.7%,from 20.8 to 6.7%, electricity, gas, water supply, utility services.
And you go to Financial and Real Estate same story, 16.5% rate of growth in 2013-14, plummets /falls to 10.8%, again approximately 6% decline. Fundamental Housing, thats what Real Estate Housing is about, same story. Manufacturing is the same story. I don’t want to repeat myself. What is the Macro Economic scene NDA Government? In the eve of the upcoming elections shows that they have ruined the economy, this is beyond demonetisation alone.
Let me turn next to what happens to entrepreneurship. People are talking about entrepreneurship, I hear the Honourable Prime Minister talk about entrepreneurship, here is a data that you may not know. Entrepreneurship in 2014, 9% were borrowing for business, it’s the small entrepreneur, start ups, in 2014, 9% were borrowing for business. Where is it today, 5% in 2017. So when we talk of the small entrepreneur, the heartthrob of the economy, entrepreneurship has taken a back seat, the spirit of entrepreneurship is down. No one talks about it.
Now you turn to employment, il just give you one example from the Government of India’s Labour Bureau, seventh round, between 1st of April 2017 and 1st of July 2017, according to the Labour Bureau of Government of India, 87,000 jobs were lost in manufacturing, no one talks about it. Here is hard data from Government of India.
Now let’s turn to corruption. According to the Central Vigilance Commission of Government of India, corruption jumped 67% in Government in 2016 compared to 2015.I hear people talking about no corruption, clean Government, Central Vigilance Commission compares 2015 to 2016 and finds a jump in corruption in Government, to the tune of 67% jump.
Let me turn now to the other factor which relates to the Banking sector of India, the NDA Government lead by Mr. Modi has killed the banking sector to the point that it’s a shame. Why do I say so, gross non-performing assets in banks, that means those who are not paying back, some wilful defaulters, some defaulters but not paying back to the bank. Two lakh nine thousand crore in 2013-14 was the gross NPA of the Banking system in India. What happens by 2017-18, Two lakh nine thousand climbs to nine lakh one thousand crore, that’s four and a half times more gross non-performing assets of banks, same is repeated if you take the net NPA. So you have brought the banking system to halt and in the middle of that you see what happens with Nirav Modi and others. It is just a reflection of how this Government has completely ruined the Banking Sector.
Let me turn for a minute to Jan Dhan Yojna, everybody talks about it, great job Jan Dhan Yojna, nobody knows that 48% of the Jan Dhan Yojna accounts almost 50% inactive, when the global figure is usually 25%. It is another bluff. Inactive accounts, open the bank account Jan Dhan Yojna and then just leave it inactive. So you count it down, well here it is.
Let me turn to the question of demonetisation, it is shocking that promise was made that over three lakh crore to be extinguished in black money, you know how much it was extinguished by sixteen thousand crore. Sixteen thousand crore as against three lakh crore and what is most interesting is that the total amount of money/cash in circulation and I show you this graph, you see it was eighteen lakh crore when demonetisation took place, you are right here on top, look at that steepfall ok, money use was lower, and then we go up and look at the climb, so we are back in place of eighteen lakh crore in circulation before demonetisation to 18.7 lakh crore in current circulation of cash in the economy and then we hear cashless, less cash, all the epithets which are completely mythical and complete rubbish…….
Which are completely mythical and complete rubbish from this graph. This is his graph Reserve Bank of India graph not my graph. 66% of people in India have not even done one digital transaction another bluff. Now let me turn to GST . As far as GST is concerned the whole mechanism was put together as a seamless digital process, one country one tax, seamless. What happens infact, GSTR-1 is one which is a form to be filled which we have to complete which presents the same figures which has been approved. That didn’t happen , GSTR-2, where the purchase figures, they are self populated, then what you do , you do a short form called GST 3B. You know what the pronlem with that is, that form is not backed by the invoices. Here I make a claim as a result of not backed by the invoices not only we have gone completely manual, Hawalla has increasede massively according to our studies. Because you are putting everything on the invoices there is not way to check it and there is no way to match it so Hawala transactions have increased and today we find the the Swiss Bank account have 50.2% growth of Indian where the average in a particular Swiss Bank is only 3% growth. So Internationally its 3% growth, India grows by 50.2% why because the Hawalla transactions have increased due to the failure of GST’s automatic digitalised process and nobody wants to talk about it.
Export refunds are not happening so exports are under great stress, infact there have fallen. Three lakhs refund applacations are waiting and the worst is two lakh crores are in Central Government coffers waiting to be disbursed.
Shown in the budget , why shown in the budget, revenue deficit is shown to be lower. This is a bluff, and I challenge the government to tell the people why two lakh crores are being held by the government in their coffers which should have been refunded to the people.
Appeal module was supposed to be essentially by the digital process, fact is, it is not.
Now I turn to the story of West Bengal. GDP four and a half lakhs crores when we came into office. Today admittedly by the CSO its ten and a half lakh crores and the Finance Ministry has written a letter saying, for borrowing purpose , you can treat your GDP as eleven lakh crores. That is more than double nominal GDP of West Bengal in six years.
What about capital expenditure , eight and a half times more under Mamata Banejee leadership.Plan expenditure more than three and a half times . Power essential for the industries. 24/7 power , which state has it. With Mamata Banerjee’s effort it has changed. Roads, bridges, infrastructure, she has just allocated eighteen thousand crores for infrastructure and all this with a debt burden of two lakh crores. And this year’s debt service will be forty seven thousand crores to be paid on repayment and interest taken by the Left Front government , a burden that we buried and the Government of India did nothing to help the state of West Bengal.
We have helped ourselves, are you aware that fifty eight schemes that the State share was increased by the Government of India. Do you know that thirty eight schemes were cut off without consultation but we cannot cut out those schemes because these are peoples’ schemes.
So my quick conclusation is wheather you take the Micro economics parameters of Bengal. Wheather you take the people centric parameters initative of Mamata Banerjee , wheather it is Kanya Shree, Yuva Shree , the bicycles distributed among the girl children , it has lowered the school drop out rate. The number of child care centres in the state. The number of hospitals created today in the state. Number of Universities, collages, number of primary and other primary schools are phenomenal and in the middle of that the state wins from the Government of India five largest awards. E-Taxation, Intergrated financial management system, in E-Abgari what ever social programs we are doing, Government of India is today giving us awards.
Just last week if you look at the Chief Minister’s facebook , you will find thirty one awards have been given by the Skoch award system .
Therefore my conclusion about Bengal is, come to Bengal because Bengal means business.
Investments are flowering. You will be interested to know that there are fifty seven lakh MSME with the higest bank funding in India which are higest in India for three consecutive years which are job intense, job creative. So my submission is where the macro economic scene of India is in depression, wheather it is agriculture, electricity, water or aggregate growth, Bengal is moving forward under Mamata Banerjee’s leadership in a manner that has never been see in modern history
Renaissance which created Bengal is now on the horizon beginning to rise. So friends I could have said alot more but I have just given you a glimpse of comparative progress of Micro economy of India, GST unprepared launched , it was in our manifesto in 2009, people may not know that.
Our party in Parliament repeatedly said we accept it in principal but implementation is poor and I had the opportunity to be in the GST Council , repeatedly saying do not launch it on the first of July one year ago from now because you will be completely in a mess and we are all in a mess my friends, in where ever direction you see corruption and the rest of it.