November 27, 2019
Derek O’Brien speaks during a discussion on the economic situation in the country
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Sir, there is no doom and there is no gloom. Yes Sir, Opposition I think is exaggerating the whole thing because let me give you three solid examples where there is no doom and there is no gloom.
No Slowdown (Sarcasm)
i. In the last five years, the net worth of one of the biggest industrialists in a medium sized state in western India grew by 121%. Where is the gloom?
ii. One young entrepreneur, from a state, there are many entrepreneurs but this entrepreneur may have been from another state in western India and there was a 15000% growth in his company’s net worth. Where is the gloom? It is all positive.
iii. The Guinness Book of World Records is waiting for an application now for the largest political organisation in the world. Not only the largest, but the richest party. Where is the gloom?
Sir, now let us come to the issue of economy and talk about it. The way we planned this debate in the Opposition, the first speaker from the Congress would set the foundation for the economy, which the Congress have done. We were expecting a counter, we have not got one yet. So, maybe we will get one from the Finance Minister.
The basic issue today is what is the bigger issue? Why is industry so unsure, why are people unsure? Sir, my hypothesis today is based on a five letter word, TRUST. (FIRM BELIEF IN THE RELIABILITY OR ABILITY).
Allow me, Sir, to take you through because to trust somebody you have to rely on them, they have to have the ability, they have to have integrity. Let’s put this government to the test of the Trust Quotient.
1. Are they trusted by the people in their own party or in their own organisation?
The National Register of Citizens came, Sir. 19 lakh people have been left out – Indian citizens: 11.5 lakh Bengali Hindus and others 8 lakhs, Biharis, Gorkhas everyone. Assam branch of your own organisation is objecting to that work done. Where is the trust quotient?
2. Do your allies TRUST you? I am building a hypothesis on trust because if industry trusts you then everybody trusts you.
Sir, this I don’t need to say much because all of us have followed very carefully what happened to a 29-year old relation. The last time around, the No-confidence Motion a few months ago also came from their biggest ally.
3. Does industry TRUST you? What is your trust quotient on industry? Sir, the problem is you know what, when we speak they don’t understand what is the economy? That is exactly what is happening now.
Sir, trust quotient on GST.
a) Hasty GST – We supported you with GST, we warned you on implementation. Now what has happened?
Job loss of
i. 43% in trader segment
ii. 32% in micro segment
iii. 35% in small businesses segment
iv. 24% in medium businesses segment
So Industry will not trust you.
b) Demonetisation disaster: My limited points on demonetisation
We warned you from day one; but on the floor of the House the Prime Minister told us, there was a NaMo App which said 98% of the country has said demonetisation is great. The former Prime Minister and Finance Minister Dr Manmohan Singh was here that day, we were all here.
120 people lost their lives, Sir. You not only demonetised the economy with that, you demonetised lives of farmers. You demonetised lives of daily labourers. You demonetised lives of small traders. You demonetised lives of old pensioners. You demonetised lives of housewives.
And the very interesting thing about this is the BJP speaker giving me a guideline, “we should talk about the economy”. This is a political economy, this is not a college debating society.
On November 16, 2016, eight days after the demonetisation announcement, three Opposition parties walked from here to Rashtrapati Bhawan. One Opposition party was mine; we were first off the blocks. Another party was the National Conference. And we would like to put on record, which we have done before, they were warned at that time by their ally. Uddhav Thackeray gave Shiv Sena the permission to walk with the Trinamool Congress, eight days after demonetisation. Economy was more important than any other ideology. After that, all of us worked together, all the 16 parties.
Sir, my fourth Trust quotient.
4. Can we TRUST your data?
Before elections, you refused to release the Periodic Labour Force Survey, which showed unemployment at 45 year high (Bengal reduced unemployment by 40%)
Now, you refuse to release Household Consumer Expenditure report, which shows consumer spending declined for the first time in over forty years
Arvind Subramaniam, the former Chief Economic Advisor said economic growth rate overestimated by around 2.5 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2016-17 due to a change in methodology for calculating GDP. Now Govt wants to change base years again to 2017-18.
Who else don’t trust you? What is your trust quotient?
5. Can the States TRUST you?
Are you compensating the states enough for GST?
Here we go:
a. GST compensation of Rs 8-9 thousand crore has not been paid to Kerala, Punjab, Rajasthan, Delhi, Bengal
b. Bengal not getting GST compensation for the last 3 months.
c. Under Sarva Siksha Abhiyan, centre owes Bengal Rs 3,340 crore. Every state can give various examples on how the trust quotient you have lost.
6. Can the youth TRUST you?
Because if all these people cannot trust you, industry cannot trust you.
Jobs lost
a. Textile Industry: 3 crore
b. Casual farm labour: 3 Crore
c. Mining sector: 13 lakhs
d. Auto Component Manufacturing Industry: 10 Lakh
e. Handsets sector: 2.5 lakh
7. Can the housewife/daily labourer/farmer TRUST you?
I like what the BJP opening speaker said, he said “this is theoretical” (in his speech). My speech is not that theoretical because I have the onion wholesale prices of last year and this year. If you look at that, overall, there is a huge difference in the wholesale prices of onion and tomato. A couple of hundred percent increase.
|
State |
Onion WP (Rs/kg) | Tomato WP (Rs/kg) | ||||
| Nov’18 | Nov’19 | Increase | Nov’18 | Nov’19 | Increase | |
| Raj | 9 | 36 | 284% | 9 | 21 | 142% |
| Mah | 9 | 42 | 364% | 6 | 16 | 168% |
| M.P. | 8 | 34 | 326% | 6 | 11 | 87% |
| Bengal | 17 | 50 | 200% | 23 | 42 | 87% |
| Delhi | 10 | 39 | 271% | 11 | 21 | 86% |
| Kartk | 10 | 40 | 293% | 7 | 11 | 51% |
| Guj | 9 | 34 | 267% | 8 | 20 | 162% |
| Pun | 12 | 35 | 197% | 11 | 30 | 76% |
WP – Wholesale Price. Source – AgmarkNet
Sir, this issue of trust is also seen in how the family jewels are being sold.
Sir, no matter what we say on various parameters, we can talk about GDP, we can talk about consumer spending, we can talk about how seven out of eight core industries saw a contraction in output. I’m not so good at languages, but the Prime Minister in Houston told us that everything is well in India. He said it in six-seven different languages. All is well.
8. CONCLUSION
Sir, but why should the Prime Minister listen to any of us. My appeal today Sir, is at least to bring to your notice this is very nice public statement which was made–
“Economy is in trouble, youth want jobs. Devote more time to economics not petty politics. Please focus on the job at hand!”
My request through you to the Prime Minister is to take heed of this advice given to all of us by the former Chief Minister of Gujarat in November, 2013.
Self advice is the best advice.
Thank you, Sir.
